The Open Transition Framework.
Architecting a transparent economic roadmap to transition humanity from a Labor-Scarcity Economy to an Abundance-Access Economy—triggered by AI capability milestones.
The Synthetic Data Problem: The "Data Strike" leverage assumes AI needs human data. Current research suggests that by ~2028, models may be self-sustaining via synthetic data (AI teaching AI). If so, the public cannot "strike" if the factory doesn't need their labor or their data.
The Transition Gap is
the existential risk.
AI will displace human labor faster than governments can implement safety nets. This is not a distant concern—it is the primary solvency problem of our generation.
The question is not whether automation will happen. The question is whether we build the floor before people fall through it.
Labor vs. Safety Net Trajectory
Figure 1.4 — The Transition IntervalCore Definitions
Before planning, we must define what we are talking about. These terms form the vocabulary of the transition.
The Transition Gap
The dangerous period where AI displaces human labor faster than new economic models can be implemented. Triggered when unemployment exceeds safety net capacity.
Cognitive Automation
The replacement of 'thinking' tasks (coding, writing, analysis) by AI. Distinct from physical automation.
Universal Basic Compute
An alternative to UBI where every citizen is guaranteed a slice of AGI processing power to rent, use, or trade.
The Maslow Stack
Layer 1 (UBS): Demonetized survival—housing, transit, energy, basic food as infrastructure. Layer 2 (UBI): Cash for discretionary spending.
Deflationary Supercycle
The economic theory that AGI will drive the cost of goods and services toward zero (Moore's Law for Everything).
Open Weights
The AGI code must be inspectable by the public to ensure it isn't biased or dangerous. Prevents monopolistic capture.
Trigger-Based Timeline
Dates are guesses. Phases activate when capability milestones are hit, not when years pass. The plan adapts to reality.
Augmentation Era
AI passes the 'Remote Worker Test'
When an AI can hold a remote job for 1 month undetected, performing knowledge work at median human level.
Activate Displacement Dividend (tax on pure-automation revenue)
Mandate AI Literacy in schools—shift from memorization to verification
Establish retraining voucher system for displaced workers
Wages still primary. Displacement Dividend funds retraining.
Specialist → Generalist Operator (1 human + AI = 5 previous humans)
Disruption Era
50% of global code is AI-generated
When majority of production code is written by AI systems, indicating broad cognitive automation.
Activate Transitional UBI (Maslow Stack Layer 2)
Deploy Universal Basic Services infrastructure (Layer 1)
Legislate 32-hour then 24-hour work weeks
UBI funded by Compute Tax + Land Value Tax (not income tax).
Human Economy emerges—empathy/touch/accountability roles see wage premiums.
Abundance Era
Energy cost drops below $0.01/kWh
Fusion/advanced solar breakthrough makes energy effectively free, enabling cost-of-living collapse.
Demonetize basic needs (food, housing, energy approach zero cost)
Transition to voluntary work for prestige/passion
Implement Open Source AGI mandate—prevent monopoly
Money changes function: for status/luxury, not survival.
Work is voluntary. Purpose Grants fund exploration, sports, community.
The Math
Show your work. Numbers are not negotiable. Here's how the funding model works.
Conclusion: The math works only if productivity gains from AGI are captured effectively through Compute Tax, not hidden in offshore havens. Thermodynamic Verification addresses evasion.
Data Note: Job displacement projections are from OTF Model v3.1, a scenario model—not empirical forecasts. GDP projections assume 15% annual growth via automation (optimistic scenario). All figures should be treated as directional, not precise.
v2.0 Hardening Patches
The original plan assumed good faith. These patches address political capture, tax evasion, and governance failures.
Smart Contract Charter
DeprecatedSee: Synthetic Data Problem
AI companies will lobby against taxes. Governments are slow.
If a company wants to deploy a model above a certain compute threshold, they must agree to an embedded revenue-share protocol in the code itself.
The public forms a 'Data Union.' If AI companies want training data, they must sign the Charter. No Charter, no Data.
The Verification Strike (v2.1)
Active ResearchNarrow window: effective until ~2030
Synthetic Data obsoletes the Data Strike. AI can train on AI-generated data, making content boycotts ineffective.
Pivot from 'Stop Posting' to 'Stop Grading.' Even synthetic data requires human verification (RLHF). Target the clickworkers who rate AI outputs, not the content creators.
AI cannot mathematically prove a joke is funny or a policy is ethical. Human 'Ground Truth' verification remains the bottleneck—until AGI develops reliable auto-graders.
Thermodynamic Verification
Feasibility StudyCompanies can encrypt chains or move servers to islands to hide wealth.
Don't tax the money, tax the entropy. You can hide code, but you cannot hide heat.
Satellite thermal imaging + power-grid auditing track massive energy sinks. If a facility consumes 500MW but reports $0 tax, audit triggers automatically.
The Maslow Stack
Core Architecture'Vouchers' feel authoritarian—government deciding what you can buy.
Universal Basic Services (Layer 1) + Universal Basic Income (Layer 2). Survival is handled by infrastructure (like public roads), cash is for freedom.
Prevents 'breadline vibe' because survival is infrastructure, not permission. Money preserved for agency and status.
Sortition Governance
ProposedPure DAOs are prone to hacks and gridlock. They cannot handle emergencies.
Citizen Assembly selected by random lottery (Sortition) for 6-month terms. Cannot write laws, but have Veto Power and can trigger 'Emergency Pauses.'
Removes career politicians while keeping human 'hand on the plug.' No permanent ruling class.
Contribution Credit System
Behavioral Research'Voluntary work' ignores human need for structure, status, and struggle. Mass purposelessness leads to depression.
To unlock higher UBI tiers, engage in verified community activities: mentoring, environmental restoration, elder care, or civic governance.
Preserves status hierarchy humans crave without threatening survival. Work becomes optional but rewarded, not eliminated.
Job Displacement Tracker
Scenario projections of workforce transformation. Data from OTF Model v3.1—treat as directional, not precise forecasts.
The Opt-Out Protocol
The system cannot be mandatory, or it becomes a prison. Citizens can declare "Sovereign Status" with clear trade-offs.
What You Keep (The Rights)
Data Sovereignty
Your data is legally firewalled. Cannot be scraped, trained on, or used by the Data Union.
Tax Exemption
Exempt from Social Contribution requirements (no mandatory civic service).
Asset Protection
Full ownership of physical assets (land, gold, hardware) without Redistribution Taxes.
What You Waive (The Costs)
No UBI/UBS
Zero monthly dividend. No free access to Basic Services layer—pay market rates.
No Public AGI
Barred from subsidized Public Compute cloud. Must purchase from private providers at unsubsidized rates.
Heritage Zone Only
May only reside in designated Heritage Zones where high-level automation is restricted.
Heritage Zones
Designated geographic regions where high-level automation is restricted. Similar to Amish communities or National Parks. These zones preserve traditional labor, craftsmanship, and human-centric living for those who reject the AI transition. Sovereignty Status holders may only reside in these zones.
Frequently Asked Questions
The "doomer questions" everyone asks. Answered directly.
Who buys products if no one works?
The Machine Economy generates wealth. Citizens receive dividends (UBI) from the Compute Tax on AGI revenue. Purchasing power is maintained through redistribution, not wages. Think: universal shareholders of the robot economy.
Won't UBI cause hyperinflation?
Only if supply stays fixed. The plan pairs UBI with supply-side automation. As AGI drives production costs toward zero, more goods exist to absorb the money. UBI is also pegged inversely to cost-of-goods—if inflation rises, cash payout decreases automatically while Layer 1 services (free housing/energy) expand.
Why would companies agree to be taxed?
Two mechanisms: (1) Thermodynamic Verification—you can hide money but not heat; massive compute farms are tracked via satellite thermal imaging. (2) SWIFT-style sanctions on non-compliant entities. The original 'Data Union' leverage is deprecated due to the Synthetic Data Problem.
[CRITICAL] What about Synthetic Data? If AI can train on AI data, doesn't the Data Union lose all leverage?
Yes. This is the plan's critical flaw. If AI becomes self-sustaining via synthetic data (AI teaching AI) by ~2028, the public cannot 'strike' against data collection. The defense: pivot from 'Stop Posting' to 'Stop Grading' (RLHF bottleneck). AI still needs humans to verify its outputs are good. This window is narrow—effective only until AI develops reliable auto-graders. The plan must rely more heavily on Thermodynamic Verification and regulatory capture prevention.
What stops the rich from just leaving?
Thermodynamic Verification. You can hide money offshore, but you cannot hide heat. AGI compute farms are massive energy sinks. Satellite thermal imaging tracks them globally. If your facility uses 500MW but reports $0 revenue, the audit protocol triggers.
Won't people become lazy without work?
Evidence is mixed. The plan includes the Contribution Credit System—higher UBI tiers unlock through verified community activities. But fundamentally, humans seek status and purpose. The Creative Economy (sports, art, exploration) provides those outlets. The failure mode is monitored: if participation drops below 30%, Purpose Grants activate.
What if I don't want to participate?
The Opt-Out Protocol. You can declare 'Sovereign Status' and retain data sovereignty, tax exemption, and asset protection. The cost: no UBI, no public AGI access, residence restricted to Heritage Zones (areas with limited automation). It's a real exit door, not a trap.
What if AGI arrives in 2028 instead of 2034?
The timeline is trigger-based, not calendar-based. Phases activate when milestones are hit (e.g., 50% of code is AI-generated), not when years pass. Early arrival accelerates the trigger cascade. The plan adapts; only the estimated windows change.
What if US and China refuse to cooperate?
The plan doesn't require them to. The 'Non-Aligned Digital Bloc' (EU, India, South America, Africa) can form their own Open Compute Alliance—a shared open-source AGI like CERN for AI. The Swiss Protocol creates a Safe Harbor if superpowers fragment into an arms race.
Failure Modes
Every proposal includes its counter-strategy. The plan is antifragile—it assumes things will go wrong.
Synthetic Data makes human data obsolete
Data Union loses all leverage. The 'Data Strike' becomes a horse-and-buggy union striking against Ford.
Pivot to 'Verification Strike' (RLHF bottleneck). AI still needs humans to grade outputs. Narrow window until auto-graders emerge (~2030).
Supply-side automation lags, but UBI is printed
Hyperinflation. More money chasing fewer goods.
The 'Liquidity Freeze': UBI payments are automatically throttled. Rationing of essentials (Layer 1) takes priority over cash (Layer 2).
Compute Tax is effectively evaded by major powers
Government bankruptcy. The state cannot fund UBS/UBI.
Thermodynamic Verification (can't hide heat) + SWIFT-style sanctions on non-compliant entities.
Nations refuse to coordinate (Total Fragmentation)
AGI Arms Race / War
The 'Swiss Protocol': Non-aligned nations disconnect grids and form closed-loop trade zone as 'Safe Harbor' for humanity.
Human participation drops below 30%
Mass depression, 'WALL-E Syndrome', social collapse
'Purpose Grants': Massive funding for exploration, competitive sports, community building to reignite human drive.
Success Metrics
Philosophy is debatable; numbers are not. Smart contracts trigger alarms if thresholds are breached.
Gini Coefficient
US-focused initially, global v4.0Net-Worth inequality measure. If exceeded for 2 quarters, Progressive Compute Tax auto-scales by 1% per 0.01 point increase.
Bread & Watt Index
UniversalCost of 2,000 calories + 10kWh as % of monthly UBI. If exceeded, triggers Supply-Side Emergency Act.
Voluntary Participation
Abundance Era only% of population in Social Contribution activities despite not needing to work.
Compute Cost Index
GlobalPrice per million tokens. Must decrease for deflation thesis to hold. Current trend: -65% YoY.
The Dissent
Intellectual honesty requires featuring the strongest arguments against this plan.
The Accelerationist (e/acc) Critique
"By taxing compute and enforcing human-in-the-loop brakes, you are artificially slowing AGI. This delay costs lives—cures for cancer, age reversal—that AGI would have solved sooner. Your 'Safety' is actually Lethality through delay."
We are not stopping the car; we are installing brakes so we can drive faster without crashing. A transition that causes civil war (due to mass unemployment) will destroy the servers AGI lives on. Stability is speed.
The Libertarian Critique
"This is Digital Communism with a fresh coat of paint. The 'Citizen Assembly' and 'Global Compute Tax' will inevitably become corrupt, bloated bureaucracies. The free market will solve displacement faster by inventing new job categories we can't imagine."
Markets rely on Price Discovery for Labor. When the price of Labor approaches zero, the market mechanism breaks. We are not planning the economy (what shoes you buy); we are planning the floor (that you don't starve while the market figures it out).
The Nationalist Critique
"Global coordination is naive. Nations will compete, not cooperate. Your plan assumes away the reality of geopolitical rivalry. The US and China will never share AGI benefits."
The plan doesn't require US/China cooperation. The Non-Aligned Digital Bloc builds a third pole for everyone else. The Swiss Protocol acknowledges fragmentation as a failure mode with its own defense mechanism.
This is an open
framework.
Fork it. Improve it. Submit pull requests. The transition to an abundance economy requires collective intelligence—not proprietary planning.